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This week, Independent candidate for Idaho governor Ammon Bundy became a political prognosticator,  making it clear he assumes that Governor Brad Little will win the Republican nomination in the May 17 primary election. Bundy dropped out of the Republican Primary after McGeachin consolidated extremist support behind her campaign. Part of Bundy’s political calculation was that McGeachin might not beat Little, opening a window for him to run an extremist campaign in November. Bundy emailed his supporters to let them know that “the plan has not changed,”

Screenshots of texts from the Bundy campaign to his supporters.

Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, who is challenging Little in the primary, has won support from militia leaders and white nationalists, but she has struggled to build momentum for her campaign with voters at large. McGeachin began to sputter after she was widely condemned for associating with and speaking to white nationalists at AFPAC on Feb. 25. McGeachin has since doubled down on her extremist messaging, courting endorsements from extremists and even bringing several of her fellow AFPAC speakers an event at Kleiner Park in Meridian on May 4. 

Meanwhile, since his release from the Ada County jail two weeks ago, Bundy has been less visible in the media. Questions remain about where the $100,000+ went that Diego Rodriguez and his family raised after Bundy’s arrest for disrupting law enforcement, who were working to protect the malnourished baby in the child welfare case. Bundy followers have continued to make headlines for publicly exposing private information of those involved in upholding the laws that govern child welfare cases in Idaho. Bundy’s involvement and subsequent arrest riled up hundreds of his followers, causing a lockdown at St. Luke’s Hospital in Boise that jammed 911 lines and diverted emergency care for at least four patients. 

 In Bundy’s latest email to supporters, it’s clear his eyes are focused on defeating Little in the November general election, and far from paying any mind to the clearly distant second place GOP candidate, McGeachin. He attacks Little relentlessly while relitigating activities that have led to his arrest and jail time. 

It’s clear that Bundy sees his extreme brand as being able to unite disillusioned conservatives after the primary dust settles, despite wide unpopularity, trailing in the polls, and his numerous arrests and convictions. Do you think he’ll be able to do it?